Date

 

Datele problemei.    
Cât înseamnă ce şi cu cât e echivalent?
Cât se consumă? Cine consumă? Cât mai e? Cât costă?
Cine produce? Cât produce? Cât mai produce?

 
  • Datele problemei.

  • Întâi lucrurile pe care le ştim sigur. Nu există controverse.

  • Consumul.  Aici toata lumea e de acord. Şi DOE ( ministerul energiei american) şi geofizicienii, companiile petroliere  şi CIA.

    Atenţie la creşterea consumului în China în ultimii ani.

    1 Baril      = 159 litri  
       1 Gbaril      = 1 miliard barili
    Consumul mondial zilnic 2004
    83 milioane barili  (medie)
    Consumul mondial anual 2004 
    28 Gbarili
    Consumul zilnic SUA 2004 
    23  milioane barili
    Consumul anual SUA 2004 
    8.5 Gbarili
    Consumul zilnic China 2003
    2.1 milioane barili
    Consumul zilnic China 2004 
    3.02 milioane barili
    (creştere 50% fata de 2003)
    Consumul anual China 2003   
    756 milioane barili
    Consumul anual China 2004   
    ~ 1.08 Gbarili
    Creşterea consumului în China în ultimii 10 ani
    = 1100 % 
    Creşterea consumului în China în primul trimestru 2004 = 21 %
    • Rata medie de creştere a consumului mondial anual este de 2,5%. Asta înseamnă pe scurt că dacă ne-au trebuit 150 de ani ca să consumăm jumătate din rezerva mondială de petrol, ne-au mai rămas mai puţin de 40 de ani pentru restul. Dacă restul e acolo.
  • Petrolul scos din sol până în, şi incluzând 2002  = 891 Gbarili petrol convenţional
  • Cine mai produce? (BP 2002 - mii de barili / zi )

    China are o creştere a numărului de maşini produse local de peste 1000% din 1999 şi până în 2004 (în doar cinci ani).

    Sua  si  Canada au aproape dublu consumului mediu pe cap de locuitor faţa de alte state industrializate - energie echivalent cu 8076 şi 7930 litri petrol pe an (1997). 

    Consum de energie echivalat in litrii de petrol (1997)
    SUA 8076
    Canada 7930
    Spania 2729
    Brazilia 1051
    Bangladesh 197

    Electricitatea reprezintă 16% din energia consumată mondial.

    Pentru 2004 preţul pentru petrol crud  în SUA negociat de importatori en-grosişti este de 37.45 $ / baril pentru iunie şi 47.27 pentru septembrie. Preţul spot a ajuns la 46 $ / baril în august. Înainte de începerea războiului în Irak preţurile se învârteau pe la 26-27 $ (sfârşitul lui 2002) Tabel XLS (DOE) La sfârşitul războiului, adică în mai 2003 preţul se învârtea pe la 29 $, şi toată lumea era sigură că preţul o să scadă dramatic până la 20 $. N-ar fi fost prima oară. Dar preţul a urcat. Constant. Media ultimului an este 37,21 $.  Acum aproape nimeni nu mai crede că preţul o să scadă. (Aceste preţuri sunt pentru crudul Brent SUA. Preţurile europene sunt cu 2-4 $ mai mici, datorită transportului.). În mai 2004 creşterea preţului pe ultimele 12 luni a ajuns la 28%.  În august 2004 creşterea pe ultimele şase luni ( 32.18 $ - 46.58 $ ) e de 44 %. În acest ritm preţul barilului va ajunge 65 $ până la sfârşitul anului. DAR probabil pe la 65 $ / baril creşterea s-ar oprii datorită scăderii masive a cererii. De scăderea masivă a cererii ar trebuii să ne temem toţi.

       Poza de noapte făcute de un satelit Nasa în 2000. (395KB) Atenţie la Japonia şi diferenţa între Corea de Sud si Corea de Nord. La fel America de Sud si Nord

    Consumul energetic împărţit pe surse (pentru SUA) (quadrilioane Btu)

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/outlook.html
    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/frame.html

    Americani consumă aproximativ 28% din energia ce se produce zilnic în lume deşi reprezintă 5% din populaţia planetei.

    Consumul în quadrilioane Btu (pentru SUA)

     

     

    In 1997, 56% din petrol era consumat în sectorul transport în creştere de la 42 % în 1973  SUA (IEA, 1997b).    

    SUA an 2000

    Pe an
    Venit pe cap de locuitor 36000
    Kilometri pe cap de loc 23360
    kWh pe cap de locuitor 12000
       

    Germania an 2000

    Pe an

    Venit pe cap de locuitor 27500
    Kilometri pe cap de loc 13602
    kWh pe cap de locuitor 6250
    BP Statistical Review of USA Energy for 2002. Million tonnes of oil equivalent
    Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy Hydroelectric
    894.3 600.7 553.8  185.8 58.2

     

    France electricity production has been 506 TW.h in 1997 (1 TW.h = 1.000.000.000 KW.h).
    SUA electricity production has been 3.700 TWh in 2000
    • O tonă de petrol crud adică 7,4 barili echivalează 11.700 KWh
     

    Cine produce? Cât produce

    Producţia mondială de petrol şi gaz natural.
    Producţia e împărţită pe ţări apoi pe luni şi ani. Mai multe tabele  EXCEL (mii barili/zi)
    Producţia lunară din 1990 până în prezent 2004. Producţia anuală chiar din 1970.
    http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html ;   http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
     
    OPEC
    Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Irak, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE , Venezuela.
    Indonezia a ieşit din OPEC pentru că în 2004 a devenit importator de petrol.
     
     
    Cerere şi ofertă    pe piaţa petrolului în ultimii ani (sursă IEA)
     

    Unde mai e petrol?

     

    Estimări despre "cât a mai rămas" şi mai ales despre "punctul de vârf":
    Înainte de a vorbii de estimări un mic avertisment : De fiecare dată când vedeţi o estimare uitaţi-vă bine după cuvintele "petrol convenţional" (conventional oil) pentru că mulţi amestecă petrolul "greu" (mai multe categorii de petrol imposibil de extras la ora actuala în mod economic viabil) în găleata estimărilor optimiste despre cât petrol mai e disponibil. Despre petrolul greu şi cum se poate extrage în The end of cheap oil.
    Estimările sunt greu dacă nu imposibil de făcut în domeniul petrolier. Companiile petroliere nu îşi  publică rezervele şi nici ceea ce ştiu despre zăcăminte. Petrolul se împarte în foarte multe subcategorii şi fiecare ţară sau organizaţie mondială are altfel de standarde de măsură şi alte denumiri. Industria petrolieră este gigantică după orice standard ( 268 miliarde profit -nu cifră de afaceri- în 2000, pentru doar  primele 5 firme din domeniu ) un sfert de trilion dolari profit pe an e o sumă care nu lasă loc de explicaţii, date, întrebări. Din toate industriile este de departe cea mai profitabilă.
    Campbell şi Laherrere sunt printre puţinii care au avut curajul şi experienţa necesară ca să pornească o asemenea analiză. Ce le-a ieşit nu a fost pe placul nimănui.
    Într-un fel analiza era optimistă pentru că prevedea o trecere rapidă a economiei la gaz natural. Dar din 1997 (anul în care această analiză a fost publicată) lucrurile au început să arate rău şi în ograda gazelor naturale.

    Dupa calculele Laherrere-Campbell, la sfirşitul lui 1996 în lume mai erau aproximativ 850 Gbarili de petrol convenţional P50 (P sau F se referă la probabilitatea de a găsii în locul respectiv cantitatea estimată, P50 înseamnă 50% şanse).  Cel mai interesant calcul este cel făcut în 1991 de Craig Bond Hatfield de la Universitatea Toledo care a analizat varianta celor de la "U.S. Geological Survey" şi anume 1550 Gbarili rămaşi, aproape dublu cât varianta Laherrere-Campbell. Analiza lui Craig a concluzionat că lumea va atinge punctul de maxim în producţia de petrol în 15 ani. Adică 2006. Estimarea se referea la petrol P10 , şanse de a extrage într-adevăr cantitatea estimată - 10%.

    Cine mai deţine petrol ?(BP 2002)

    "Oamenii de multe ori iau previziunile pentru noile câmpuri şi le adaugă pur şi simplu la producţia actuală. Dar producţia actuală poate foarte bine să fi scăzut la jumătate în momentul când noile câmpuri ajung în exploatare".
     

    Să stăm strâmb şi să judecăm drept. Dacă Irakul are conform datelor publicate în mass-media 112 miliarde barili atunci această cantitate e de ajuns pentru a acoperii tot consumul mondial aproape 5 ani. Dar datele sunt dubioase. Aşa cum toţi experţii şi unele companii petroliere (BP) subliniază, Irakul şi-a umflat cifrele de la 47 GBarili la 100 Gbarili în 1987. Din aceşti 47 Gbarili o parte nu mai sunt disponibili datorită utilizării zăcământului  de petrol din nord pentru producerea de gaze naturale. În ultimi ani în loc să extragă petrol - de care nu aveau nevoie, fiind sub embargo - irakienii au turnat petrol înapoi în zăcământ pentru a "produce" gaze naturale. Metoda aceasta inedită distruge un zăcământ în proporţie de minim 50%. Petrolul trece din categoria P90 (poate fi extras cu o probabilitate de 90%) în categoria P50 sau mai jos. Unii analişti apreciază la 9% (nouă) rata de probabilitate pentru zăcământul din Kirkuk http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/iraq.html

    În altă ordine de ideii dar în acelaşi context "Fiecare 10$ / baril în plus reduce creşterea economică pe anul următor cu 0,25 % - 0.35%" Standard & Poor's  Costly Oil

    Today circa 86% of the oil used is produced from oil wells, including off-shore and deepwater wells. Circa 10% is condensates from natural gas production and circa 4% is extracted from tar sands and extra heavy oil deposits. In future, oil of fossil origin may also be synthesised from natural gas (gas to liquids, GTL) and coal. As a supplement, bio-diesel can be extracted from oil seeds and alcohol fermented from carbohydrate-rich crops (sugar canes, grain, etc.).

    For technological and economic reasons, a distinction is made between conventional and non-conventional fossil oil. Conventional oil is the cheaply recoverable oil produced in the well-known (conventional) manner from liquid, fossil reservoirs (oil wells) and oil recovered as natural gas liquids (NGL). So far conventional fossil oil has covered the bulk of the demand. The production of non-conventional fossil oil - i.e. heavy and extra heavy oil, oil from tar sands, oil derived from oil shale, and synthetic oil made on the basis of coal or natural gas - requires other techniques and is more costly in terms of money, energy consumption in the production process, and environmental impacts. Oil production from biomass, which is also non-conventional, requires yet other techniques and has other economic costs and environmental implications.

     

    Today's Estimate

    Hubbert estimated world oil reserves at 1.8 trillion barrels. Since that time and including new discoveries, the estimate has been raised to 2.0 to 2.1 trillion barrels of oil. We now have data on world oil production going back to 1850. Colin J. Campbell of Petroconsultants has made a country-by-country estimate of the world’s oil reserves. His estimates match those of Hubbert at 1.8 trillion barrels. With updated data, there has been no significant bulge or dip in the world's production curve as originally estimated by Hubbert. Using production decline curves from known oil reserves, petroleum analysts using Hubbert’s methods have now been able to estimate the peak in world oil production. According to these estimates, world oil production will begin to peak between the years of 2004 and 2008. A few of the top geologists, including Colin J. Campbell, think that peak is in 2003. The point to understand is that we are depleting our oil reserves at an annual rate of 6% a year; while demand growth is growing at an annual rate of 2%. In order to simply keep even, the world’s oil industry would have to find the equivalent of 8% a year of new oil reserves from new discoveries. This is not happening. The world consumes 76 million barrels of oil a day. This oil is not being replaced.

    There is nothing going on in the Caspian Sea, West Africa, or the South China Sea that would come close to replacing what we are now consuming. There aren’t any conservation measures like more efficient refrigerators, better gasoline mileage for autos, better insulated homes, or longer lasting light bulbs that could conserve enough energy to make up the difference between demand and supply. For that matter, there are no renewable energy projects on the horizon that could immediately help us to avoid a future energy crisis. Political leaders and the public are totally oblivious to this fact. They are not paying attention. Last year's energy crisis has now been forgotten. The news media explained the crisis in terms of industry price gouging, regulations, taxes, and distribution problems. No one is paying attention to world production declines in the U.S. or elsewhere. This means there is nothing that can be done now in order to avoid a future crisis. It takes years from the time of discovery of new oil to the time it is produced, shipped, and refined and consumed as energy. The oil that is discovered today won’t reach the markets for another 8-10 years. An unprecedented crisis is just over the horizon because of inattention and neglect.

    World Production Estimates

    Despite the accuracy of Hubbert’s analysis, his work has never been fully accepted by economists and politicians. The economic and political world still thinks in terms of widgets. The result is that the U.S. now imports over 60% of its oil needs and is heavily dependent on foreign sources of oil for its economic security. The truth is, we have supply ... it's just not in our own backyard. The economic debate has transformed the energy issue from a domestic one to an international issue with the same principles applied to an understanding of supply and demand in determining price equilibrium. Even though we disregard Hubbert's analysis, Hubbert’s method of analysis has been used to predict with a high degree of accuracy decline curves in energy production for the rest of world. U.S. production peaked in 1970, Russia in 1986, North Sea production could peak this year, China in 2005-2006, Mexico in 2007, and Canadian production could reach its peak towards the end of this decade. OPEC production is predicted to peak between the years of 2020-2025. However, non-OPEC supply will peak between the years of 2005-2007.   Simmons & Company International   Source: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, P. 124
     

    Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2002, p. A1:

     "Through most of the 20th century, the major petroleum companies
    focused on exploring for oil and natural gas. But the age of 'elephant'
    strikes is over. There has been just one great find in the past 30
    years: the 1999 discovery of Kashagan, a field off Kazakhstan in the
    Caspian Sea. Today, the oil fields in the Western oil majors'
    traditional strongholds--Alaska, the North Sea, and Texas--are in
    decline. Most of the world's untapped reserves are in the hands of
    state-owned oil companies in the Middle East.
            "The relative dry spell has left the majors--Exxon Mobil Corp.
    BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, France's Total SA and ChevronTexaco
    Corp.--under intense pressure to replace the reserves they use up, and
    to increase their profits. Even though they still hunt for new oil,
    their focus has shifted to 'high-grading' : selling tired fields or
    entire operations and replacing them with riskier but more profitable
    ventures."
            "This emphasis on shifting around existing pools of oil and gas
    poses a problem: It does little or nothing to increase the world's
    overall petroleum stockpile. With U.S. oil prices hitting a record high
    of $41.55 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid
    war worries and soaring demand, concerns are mounting about the
    industry's ability to ensure supply keeps up with consumption.
            "The world isn't about to run out of oil. But oil consumption is
    outpacing the industry's discovery of new reserves. At 40.6 years of
    consumption covered by proven oil reserves in the ground in 2002, the
    most recent year tracked, according to the BP Statistical Review, an
    industry-data bible. That was down from 44.7 years in 1989." Bhushan
    Bahree, "As Fresh Prospects Dry Up, Petroleum Industry strikes Deals."
    Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2002, p. A1
     

    Kashagan has about as much recoverable oil as Prudhoe Bay.
     

    I might mention that even though we have 40 years of consumption covered
    by reserves, it doesn't mean that we will get that oil out at the
    production rate we need. As oil fields get old, the rate the oil comes
    up the borehole gets smaller and smaller. This is because the pressure
    in a new field is high and in an old field it is low. Pressure
    differentials are what drive the oil up the wellbore. It takes lots
    longer to get the 2nd half of the oil than it does the first half. One
    thing is clear: We will be producing oil at the end of this century; we
    just won't be producing it at a fast enough rate.
     

    But of course, those outside the industry, like dentists, know more
    about how we will create energy than those who actually work in the
    industry. We who work in the industry are universally dummies and can't
    see our way to the bathroom.

    The analysis shows that output from 18 significant oil-producing countries, accounting for almost 29 percent of total world production, declined by 1.14 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2003. The annual rate of decline also appears to be accelerating, contrary to the widely held view that depletion progresses slowly.

    Based on data in the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy, production from this group of 18 countries peaked in 1997 at 24.7 mb/d and by 2003 it had fallen to 22.1 mb/d. In 1998 their total production dropped by less than one percent, whereas last year it declined by nearly five percent.

    "It appears that depletion is now becoming a much more significant, though largely unrecognised, consideration in the supply-demand equation, and may be contributing to the rise in oil prices," said Chris Skrebowski, Editor of Petroleum Review and a Board member of The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC), who prepared the new analysis.

    "With world oil demand surging faster than anyone expected, it is no wonder that current supplies are stretched to the limit," he said.

    By re-ordering the BP data on a continuum from those producers with the largest declines to those with the largest gains, his analysis shows that in 2003 the producers still able to expand production had to increase their total output by over 7.5 percent to achieve overall world production growth of about 3.7 percent.

    "Looked at in this way, you see a quite different and more worrisome picture from the one presented in the BP report," Mr Skrebowski said.

    "Those producers still with expansion potential are having to work harder and harder just to make up for the accelerating losses of the large number that have clearly peaked and are now in continuous decline," he said.

    Declining oil production from entire countries, as opposed to individual fields or regions, is a recent development. Until the 1990s, only two countries were in decline, including the United States where production peaked in 1971 and began continuously to decline in 1985. By the late 1990s, the BP statistics showed at least 10 significant producers in decline. Two more were added each year from 1999 to 2001.

    These are some other key findings in the Petroleum Review report:

    Gabon, where output peaked in 1996, tops the list of countries in sustained decline with production there falling over 18 percent in 2003, more than double its average decline rate for the last three years.

    Australia saw its production drop more than 14 percent in 2003, almost twice the average decline rate since it peaked in 2000.

    UK production from the North Sea, which peaked in 1999, posted the world's fourth largest decline in 2003 at nearly 9 percent.

    Indonesia, an OPEC member, has been in decline for 12 years, averaging 2.6 percent a year, but over the past few years this has accelerated to 8.5 percent last year.

    Having confirmed that its two largest producing regions are now in decline, China, with only modest production growth of 1.5 percent last year, looks likely to go into decline soon.

    "We have also seen quite spectacular growth rates from some of the countries that are still expanding their production, but in most cases it seems unlikely that such large increases can be repeated or sustained without massive new investment," Mr Skrebowski noted.

    "With little or no spare production capacity now available around the world, production expansion will depend mainly on new project start-ups. However, at the moment we see very few of these scheduled to come onstream after 2008," he said.

    "Clearly at some point - perhaps sooner than many might expect - the losses and gains will balance out and global oil production will then tip into decline."