Matthew Simmons

 

Cine este şi ce spune el

Matthew Simmons este un personaj cheie. Este membru īn consiliul energetic al administraţiei Bush, a făcut parte din grupul pentru studiul energiei al vicepreşdintelui Cheney īn 2001 şi este membru al Consiliului pentru Afaceri Externe. Este preşedintele firmei de investiţii bancare Simmons & Co International cu un portofoliu de investiţii de aproximativ 35 miliarde dolari.

Printre  geologi este cunoscut pentru două lucruri aparent contradictorii: Este un fervent susţinător a lui George W. Bush şi īn acelaşi timp singurul personaj oficial care vorbeşte deschis despre declinul petrolului şi al gazelor naturale.

El spune că a venit timpul (interviu august 2003) ca subiectul Apogeul petrolului să devină public:  "Am trecut de ora 12. Aşa cum am mai spus, experţii şi politicienii nu au un plan B. Dacă energia decade, īn special atāta timp cāt 5 miliarde de oameni nu folosesc aproape deloc energia modernă, va fi un şoc incredibil pentru bunăstarea şi sănătatea noastră, mai mare decāt vă puteţi imagina.
La īntrebarea dacă există soluţii, Simmons a răspuns
:
"Nu cred. Soluţia este să ne rugăm. Īn cel mai bun caz, dacă toate rugăciunile vor fi ascultate nu o să fie nici o criză pentru īncă 2 ani. După aceea este o certitudine. (de atunci a trecut un an)

Secretarul cu probleme energetice (ministrul energiei ) SUA  Spencer Abraham (2000):
"America are īn faţă o criză majoră de resurse īn următoarele două decenii. Eşecul īn a rezolva această problemă va ameninţa prosperitatea economică a naţiunii noastre, securitatea naţională, şi literalmente va altera modul nostru de viaţă"

Vicepreşedintele SUA Dick Cheney 1999:
"După unele estimări, creşterea cererii anuală de petrol va fii de 2%(pe an) īn următorii ani, iar declinul producţiei de petrol de 3%(pe an)."  "Asta īnseamnă că īn 2010 vom avea o discrepanţă īntre cerere şi ofertă de ordinul a 50 milioane de barili pe zi."  Īn 2003, 2004 nivelul zilnic al producţiei mondiale a fost īn de 77-80 milioane barili/zi.

Raport comandat de Dick Cheney şi apărut īn 2001:
"Cea mai mare diferenţă īntre acum şi un deceniu īn urmă este rapida eroziune a capacităţilor suplimentare īn segmente critice ale lanţului energetic. Astăzi decăderea pare să fie generalizată. Cea mai importantă pierdere a capacităţii suplimentare de producţie este īn domeniul petrolifer.

Fostul ministru britanic al mediul īnconjurător Michael Meacher īn Financial Times:
" E greu să prevezi efectele reducerii radicale ale rezervelor de petrol asupra economiei moderne sau asupra societăţii. Implicaţiile sunt şocante."

 I

Matthew Simmons is the CEO of the world's largest Energy Investment Bank, Simmons & Company International . Its clients include Halliburton; Baker, Botts, LLP; Dynegy; Kerr-McGee; and the World Bank. Since 1993, it has underwritten or financed 18 transactions valued at more than $350 million. Of those, six were valued at more than $1 billion. Simmons is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on the National Petroleum Council's Natural Gas Task Force. He has a lot to say about the Northeast power grid blackout, its causes, and what they imply for the future. He also has a lot to say about Peak Oil and Gas.

The situation is so dire that George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." In an August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:

 "It is past time.  As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on.  If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater than anyone could ever imagine."

 When asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:

 "I don’t think there is one.  The solution is to pray.  Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."

 It's not just Simmons sounding the alarm.  According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham:

 "America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades.  The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."

 The statements of Vice President Dick Cheney have been equally alarming.  In late 1999, Cheney stated:

 “By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”

 Cheney ended on a disturbing note, “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”

A report commissioned by Cheney and released in 2001 was no less rosy:

“The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.” 

Presentation    Berlin  May 2004 Natural Gas

Presentation Calculating Oil & Gas Reserves: An Art Form Or A Science?

Presentation The Story Of Natural Gas: Supply, Demand, And A Brick Wall

Presentation The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle

Presentation Outlook 2004: Easy Questions...Hard Answers

Presentation Our Energy Problems Are Serious

Presentation The Future Of Energy

Pagina web a lui Matthew Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

http://www.guerrillanews.com/sci-tech/doc2927.html

Iată câteva din documentele lui Simmons:

Calcaiul lui Ahile din Oman
Cimpurile petroliere gigantice pot colapsa
    Yibal: Un cimp petrolifer gigantic este descoperit in 1963.
            Productia incepe in 1969
            Injectia apei incepe in 1972
            Puturile verticale devin inutile in 1990
            Puturile orizontale (noua tehnica de extractie) recreaza jetul fabulos de petrol / put
            Productia atinge maximul in 1997: 250.000 barili / zi
            In 2001 productia scade la 90.000 barili / zi
            In 2004 Yibal produce mai putin de 40.000 barili /zi
Morala: Declinul a venit pe neasteptate
Yibal probabil va produce in final 44% pina la 50% din esimarile originale.
OOIP (after EOR)
 

Producţia fabuloasă a cāmpului petrolifer Ghawar (cel mai mare din lume- Arabia Saudită)
Ghawar este cel mai mare cāmp petrolifer din lume cu o producţie de aproximativ 5 milioane de barili / zi.
Acest cāmp are 60 de ani. Īn 1975 estimările
( Exxon, Mobil, Chevron şi Texaco)  pentru cantitatea aflată acolo mergeau pānă la 60 miliarde de barili. Producţia cumulativă pānă īn 2003: 55 miliarde barili.  Firma Saudi ARAMCO susţine acum că mai există īncă 125 de miliarde barili īn Ghawar. Oare cāt de rău au greşit Exxon, Mobil, Chevron şi Texaco īn 1975? Vom afla īn cāţiva ani.

 "Trust Me" Era Is Over "Trust Me" Era Is Over
n Shell’s stunning proven reserve write-down was a wakeup call.
n Most of world’s "proven reserves" are simply "statements".
n Some of the "statements" have to be wrong.
n The majority of the public E&P companies might haveoverbooked reserves.
n Finding and development costs have doubled.
n Daily BOE production is flattening out.
n "Trust Me" was fine when world’s oil supply was young.
n The world’s oil supply is now extremely mature.

 Preşedintele Exxon Mobile īntr-un interviu 6 mai 2004
LEE Raymond CEO of EXXON MOBILE ON Charlie Rose  http://www.warmwell.com/04may10exxon.html
sau http://www.charlierose.com
For those of you who missed it last night Lee Raymond CEO of Exxon Mobile was on Charlie Rose on PBS last night. (i.e. May 6 2004)
And if there were any doubts about the dire state of affairs for OIL he dispelled that very well.

Some of the points he made:

1. There is no quick fix replacement for OIL, there is no other energy source on the horizon that can replace the energy equivalent of oil. None! If there was they would be in it. He made a very strong point of how OIL energy has been the single element that has made possible the fantastic economic growth of the 20th century and there is nothing out there that can replace it.

2. China and the U.S. are running out of oil, in his words "No doubt about it"

3. No major oil company wants to operate in Iraq. In his words: " the oil infrastructure in place in Iraq is the same infrastructure built by the oil majors in the late 1960's and early 1970's before they were kicked out by Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi oil industry nationalized, It has never been updated. And the US government was nieve to believe that oil production could be ramped up beyond its pre-war levels. The infrastructure is not capable of increasing production" It will be years and billions of dollars will need to be invested before production can be increased significantly. The US government was also nieve to believe that revenues from Iraqi oil production would be sufficient to rebuild Iraq and its oil infrastructure.

4. He confirmed that the North Sea was facing severe production declines and the UK was becoming a net oil importer.

5. Stated that is was not the OIL companies objective to ensure they operated in strictly deomocratic countries and the type of goverment was not their concern. Their aim was to go where the oil was.

6. Stated that Exxon Mobile was not consulted or part of Vice President Cheney's Energy Task Force.

7. Stated that at the current time there was an adequate supply of oil on the market, they could buy all they wanted. What was driving up the price currently was speculators entering the market due to political instability in some of the world's major oil producing countries.

8. Stated the need to bring back Nuclear Energy for Electrical Generation as it was the only viable alternative.

9. Solar energy is not a viable replacement. He made the comment that it would take 84 square miles of solar panels to replace the energy that a single gas station sells on a single day. It would take solar panels covering all of New Jersey to replace the energy dispensed by just 100 gas stations in a single day. Exxon has 3,000 gas stations in the US and only has 13% of the market, and in his words "Do the math" noting else is feasable to replace oil as an energy source!

 

When You Are Interviewed by Mainstream Media, Do You Try to Tell Them About Oil Peak and Decline?" http://ram.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2003/02/MattSimmons.Q2.01-2.2003-02-10.ram  Atenţie fişiere video 10 Mb Real Media

How Did We Get Into the Current Situation?"
http://ram.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2003/02/MattSimmons.Q4.01-4.2003-02-10.ram

How Did You Come to Be an Advocate for Oil Peak and Decline?" http://ram.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2003/02/MattSimmons.Q6.01-6.2003-02-10.ram

 

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/IEA-SOM.pdf