Matthew Simmons este un personaj cheie. Este membru în consiliul
energetic al administraţiei Bush, a făcut parte din grupul pentru
studiul energiei al vicepreşdintelui Cheney în 2001 şi este membru al
Consiliului pentru Afaceri Externe. Este preşedintele firmei de
investiţii bancare Simmons & Co International cu un portofoliu de
investiţii de aproximativ 35 miliarde dolari.
este cunoscut pentru două lucruri aparent contradictorii: Este un
fervent susţinător a lui George W. Bush şi în acelaşi timp singurul
personaj oficial care vorbeşte deschis despre declinul petrolului şi al
El spune că
a venit timpul (interviu
august 2003) ca subiectul Apogeul petrolului să devină public:
"Am trecut de ora 12. Aşa
cum am mai spus, experţii şi politicienii nu au un plan B. Dacă energia
decade, în special atâta timp cât 5 miliarde de oameni nu folosesc aproape deloc
energia modernă, va fi un şoc incredibil pentru bunăstarea şi sănătatea
noastră, mai mare decât vă puteţi imagina.
La întrebarea dacă există soluţii, Simmons a răspuns:
"Nu cred. Soluţia este să ne rugăm. În cel mai bun caz,
dacă toate rugăciunile vor fi ascultate nu o să fie nici o criză pentru încă
2 ani. După aceea este o certitudine. (de atunci a trecut un an)
Secretarul cu probleme energetice (ministrul
energiei ) SUA
Spencer Abraham (2000):
"America are în faţă o criză majoră de resurse în
următoarele două decenii. Eşecul în a rezolva această problemă va
ameninţa prosperitatea economică a naţiunii noastre, securitatea
naţională, şi literalmente va altera modul nostru de viaţă"
Dick Cheney 1999:
"După unele estimări, creşterea cererii anuală de
petrol va fii de 2%(pe an) în următorii ani, iar declinul producţiei de petrol
de 3%(pe an)."
"Asta înseamnă că în 2010 vom avea o discrepanţă între
cerere şi ofertă de ordinul a 50 milioane de barili pe
zi." În 2003, 2004 nivelul zilnic al producţiei mondiale a
fost în de 77-80 milioane barili/zi.
comandat de Dick Cheney şi apărut în 2001:
"Cea mai mare diferenţă între acum şi un deceniu în urmă
este rapida eroziune a capacităţilor suplimentare în segmente critice
ale lanţului energetic. Astăzi decăderea pare să fie generalizată. Cea
mai importantă pierdere a capacităţii suplimentare de producţie este în
Fostul ministru britanic al mediul
Michael Meacher în Financial Times:
" E greu să prevezi efectele reducerii radicale ale
rezervelor de petrol asupra economiei moderne sau asupra societăţii.
Implicaţiile sunt şocante."
Matthew Simmons is the CEO of the world's largest
Energy Investment Bank, Simmons & Company
Its clients include Halliburton;
Baker, Botts, LLP; Dynegy; Kerr-McGee; and the World Bank. Since 1993,
it has underwritten or financed 18 transactions valued at more than
$350 million. Of those, six were valued at more than $1 billion. Simmons
is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on the National
Petroleum Council's Natural Gas Task Force. He has a lot to say about
the Northeast power grid blackout, its causes, and what they imply for
the future. He also has a lot to say about Peak Oil and Gas.
situation is so dire that George W. Bush's Energy Adviser,
has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the
world's biggest serious question." In an
August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak
Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:
is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan
B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s
6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a
tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater
than anyone could ever imagine."
asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:
don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the
best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no
crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."
not just Simmons sounding the alarm. According to Secretary of Energy
faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The
failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic
prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the
way we lead our lives."
statements of Vice President Dick Cheney have been equally alarming.
In late 1999, Cheney stated:
some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in
global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a
three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”
ended on a disturbing note, “That means by 2010 we will need on the
order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”
A report commissioned by Cheney and released in 2001 was no less rosy:
most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the
extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments
of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among
the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil
Berlin May 2004 Natural Gas
Calculating Oil & Gas Reserves: An Art Form Or A Science?
The Story Of Natural Gas: Supply, Demand, And A Brick Wall
The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle
Presentation Outlook 2004: Easy Questions...Hard Answers
Presentation Our Energy Problems Are Serious
Presentation The Future Of Energy
Pagina web a lui Matthew Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Iată câteva din
documentele lui Simmons:
Ahile din Oman
petroliere gigantice pot colapsa
cimp petrolifer gigantic este descoperit in 1963.
Productia incepe in 1969
Injectia apei incepe in 1972
Puturile verticale devin inutile in 1990
Puturile orizontale (noua tehnica de extractie) recreaza jetul
fabulos de petrol / put
Productia atinge maximul in 1997: 250.000 barili / zi
2001 productia scade la 90.000 barili / zi
2004 Yibal produce mai putin de 40.000 barili /zi
a venit pe neasteptate
va produce in final 44% pina la 50% din esimarile originale.
OOIP (after EOR)
Producţia fabuloasă a
câmpului petrolifer Ghawar (cel mai mare din lume- Arabia Saudită)
Ghawar este cel mai
mare câmp petrolifer din lume cu o producţie de aproximativ 5 milioane
de barili / zi.
Acest câmp are 60 de
ani. În 1975 estimările
( Exxon, Mobil, Chevron
şi Texaco) pentru
cantitatea aflată acolo mergeau până la 60 miliarde de barili. Producţia
cumulativă până în 2003: 55 miliarde barili. Firma Saudi ARAMCO
susţine acum că mai există încă 125 de miliarde barili în Ghawar. Oare
cât de rău au greşit
Exxon, Mobil, Chevron şi
Texaco în 1975? Vom afla în câţiva ani.
Me" Era Is Over "Trust Me" Era Is Over
Shell’s stunning proven reserve write-down was a wakeup
of world’s "proven reserves" are simply "statements".
of the "statements" have to be wrong.
majority of the public E&P companies might haveoverbooked reserves.
Finding and development costs have doubled.
BOE production is flattening out.
Me" was fine when world’s oil supply was young.
world’s oil supply is now extremely mature.
Preşedintele Exxon Mobile într-un interviu 6
For those of you who missed it last night Lee Raymond CEO of
Exxon Mobile was on Charlie Rose on PBS last night. (i.e. May
And if there were any doubts about the dire state of affairs for
OIL he dispelled that very well.
Some of the points he made:
1. There is no quick fix replacement for OIL, there is no other
energy source on the horizon that can replace the energy
equivalent of oil. None! If there was they would be in it. He
made a very strong point of how OIL energy has been the single
element that has made possible the fantastic economic growth of
the 20th century and there is nothing out there that can replace
2. China and the U.S. are running out of oil, in his words "No
doubt about it"
3. No major oil company wants to operate in Iraq. In his words:
" the oil infrastructure in place in Iraq is the same
infrastructure built by the oil majors in the late 1960's and
early 1970's before they were kicked out by Saddam Hussein and
the Iraqi oil industry nationalized, It has never been updated.
And the US government was nieve to believe that oil production
could be ramped up beyond its pre-war levels. The infrastructure
is not capable of increasing production" It will be years and
billions of dollars will need to be invested before production
can be increased significantly. The US government was also nieve
to believe that revenues from Iraqi oil production would be
sufficient to rebuild Iraq and its oil infrastructure.
4. He confirmed that the North Sea was facing severe production
declines and the UK was becoming a net oil importer.
5. Stated that is was not the OIL companies objective to ensure
they operated in strictly deomocratic countries and the type of
goverment was not their concern. Their aim was to go where the
6. Stated that Exxon Mobile was not consulted or part of Vice
President Cheney's Energy Task Force.
7. Stated that at the current time there was an adequate supply
of oil on the market, they could buy all they wanted. What was
driving up the price currently was speculators entering the
market due to political instability in some of the world's major
oil producing countries.
8. Stated the need to bring back Nuclear Energy for Electrical
Generation as it was the only viable alternative.
9. Solar energy is not a viable replacement. He made the comment
that it would take 84 square miles of solar panels to replace
the energy that a single gas station sells on a single day. It
would take solar panels covering all of New Jersey to replace
the energy dispensed by just 100 gas stations in a single day.
Exxon has 3,000 gas stations in the US and only has 13% of the
market, and in his words "Do the math" noting else is feasable
to replace oil as an energy source!
When You Are Interviewed by Mainstream Media, Do You Try to Tell Them
About Oil Peak and Decline?"
Atenţie fişiere video 10 Mb Real Media
How Did We Get Into the Current Situation?"
How Did You Come to Be an Advocate for Oil Peak and Decline?"